Calcined Coke Increased Cost Pressure, Divergence in Market Trading
Market Review
On October 30, the average market price of calcined petroleum coke was 3,597 yuan/ton, an increase of 16 yuan/ton or 0.44% compared with the previous working day. Today, the trading of low-sulfur calcined coke in the market is average. Supported by the upward trend of raw material prices, enterprises producing low-sulfur calcined coke are seeking price increases in their quotations. However, due to the general on-site demand, the implementation of price increases is slow, and the overall trading focus remains stable. Today, the trading of medium and high-sulfur calcined coke in the market is decent, with no pressure on product shipments in the overall market, sustained demand for goods from downstream enterprises, and continued upward prices of medium and high-sulfur calcined coke.
Today's Prices
The mainstream transaction price of low-sulfur calcined coke (using Jinxi and Jinzhou petroleum coke as raw materials) in the market ranges from 5,650 to 5,750 yuan/ton.
The mainstream ex-factory transaction price of low-sulfur calcined coke (using Fushun petroleum coke as raw material) ranges from 6,200 to 6,400 yuan/ton.
The mainstream transaction price of low-sulfur calcined coke (using Liaohe and Binzhou CNOOC petroleum coke as raw materials) in the market ranges from 5,050 to 6,100 yuan/ton.
For medium and high-sulfur calcined coke (sulfur content 3.0%, no requirements on trace elements), the previous mainstream ex-factory contract price in cash was 2,850 yuan/ton, and the mainstream ex-factory price under negotiation today is 2,850 yuan/ton in cash.
For medium and high-sulfur calcined coke (sulfur content 3.5%, no requirements on trace elements), the previous mainstream ex-factory contract price in cash was approximately 2,750 to 2,850 yuan/ton, and the mainstream ex-factory price under negotiation today is 2,750 to 2,850 yuan/ton in cash.
For medium and high-sulfur calcined coke (sulfur content 3.0%, vanadium content 400), the previous contract price in cash was 3,900 to 4,000 yuan/ton, and the ex-factory price under negotiation today is 3,900 to 4,000 yuan/ton in cash.
Supply Side
Today, the national daily supply of commercial calcined coke is 27,453 tons, with an operating rate of 57.47%. Compared with the previous working day, the market supply of calcined coke has increased by 0.14%.
Upstream Market
Petroleum coke: Refineries under Sinopec maintain stable prices for shipments. The demand for anode coke in the Yangtze River Delta region is sound, and refineries generally have no pressure on shipments. Anqing Petrochemical, Jiujiang Petrochemical, and Hunan Petrochemical mainly produce anode coke; Yanshan Petrochemical in North China mainly produces cathode coke; the demand in East China is stable, and refineries maintain stable prices for shipments; Tahe Petrochemical in Northwest China mainly focuses on shipments outside Xinjiang, mainly supplying aluminum carbon. Today, refineries under PetroChina mainly maintain stable prices. Refineries in Northeast China have low inventory and good shipments, with sufficient support from the downstream demand side, and the overall market is dominated by a positive atmosphere; refineries in Northwest China maintain stable shipments, mainly driven by the demand for aluminum carbon; currently, Guangdong Petrochemical in South China has no external sales. Today, refineries under CNOOC deliver goods according to orders.
Downstream Market
Graphite electrodes: Today, quotations from mainstream enterprises have increased. The price increase range for small and medium-sized specifications is about 300-500 yuan/ton, and that for large specifications is about 200-300 yuan/ton. The overall market shows a positive sentiment of seeking price increases, but due to the current sluggish demand, there is no significant change in transaction prices.
Electrolytic aluminum: The social inventory of aluminum ingots has decreased. Coupled with the production reduction plan of some enterprises in Xinjiang due to weather reasons, and President Xi Jinping's meeting with U.S. President Trump in Busan, which has led to the continuous improvement of China-U.S. relations, the spot aluminum price has risen.
Anode materials: Today, the trading of anode materials in the market remains generally stable, and the demand side continues the pattern of "strong energy storage and stable power". On the one hand, the strong demand in the energy storage market directly drives the increase in the procurement demand and willingness for anode materials, and the orders of some small and medium-sized anode enterprises have achieved month-on-month growth. On the other hand, driven by both consumption policies and mainstream new vehicle models, the recovery in terminal auto market sales has been successfully transmitted to the power battery sector, supporting the stable delivery of long-term orders between leading anode enterprises and mainstream battery manufacturers.
Future Forecast
The trading of low-sulfur calcined coke remains stable, and the downstream demand growth is insufficient. It is expected that low-sulfur calcined coke will be shipped at stable prices. The order sales of medium and high-sulfur calcined coke in the market are good, and the cost pressure continues to increase. It is expected that the price of medium and high-sulfur calcined coke will be actively pushed up.