In 2021, the overall price trend of China's needle coke market is mainly upward, and the cost side continues to be under pressure
Overview of needle coke market in 2021
In 2021, the overall price trend of China's needle coke market was dominated by an upward trend. From the beginning of 2021 to the Spring Festival, the downstream actively prepared goods. Driven by demand, the needle coke market price rose slightly by 500 yuan / ton. After the Spring Festival to the end of March, the market transaction was active, superimposed on the low market start-up, the supply was tight, and the price rose sharply by 1500 yuan / ton. From April to June, Affected by the upward market price in the early stage, the market started to grow to more than 50%, the supply of goods increased, the price of petroleum coke decreased, the downstream procurement was cautious, the market sentiment cooled, the upward frequency of prices slowed down, and the market was dominated by stable operation. After the National Day holiday in October, the price of raw materials rose sharply, the price of needle coke also rose, and the overall market stabilized at the end of the year, Prices run smoothly.
Analysis of needle coke production in China in 2021
According to incomplete statistics of Baichuan Yingfu, the production capacity of needle coke in China will be about 2.29 million tons in 2021, and the new production capacity will be 570000 tons. The total output from January to December was 1082900 tons, an increase of 98.00% over the same period in 2020, including 586900 tons of cooked coke, an increase of 54.08% over 2020, and 496000 tons of raw coke, an increase of 190.56% over 2020.
Market price analysis of needle coke in China in 2021
In 2021, the overall trend of China's needle coke price is mainly upward. The rise in the market price of upstream raw materials and downstream graphite electrodes increases the cost of needle coke, improves the demand, superimposes the low market start-up and exhausts the inventory, so it promotes the rise in the market price of needle coke.
The price will rise in 2021, among which the oil series cooked Coke will increase by 61.02%. By the end of December, the operating range of needle coke market price in China was 8800-12000 yuan / ton of cooked coke; Raw coke is 6500-7500 yuan / ton, and the mainstream transaction price of imported oil needle coke is 900-1100 dollars / ton; Cooked coke 2000-2200 US dollars / ton; The mainstream transaction price of imported coal measure needle coke is 850-1500 US dollars / ton.
China needle coke market forecast in 2022
1. Supply and demand
In terms of new devices, it is planned to add 440000 tons of capacity in 2022. If it is put into operation as scheduled, the market supply will maintain growth in 2022, and the annual capacity will reach more than 2.5 million tons. In terms of output, considering factors such as enterprise maintenance, new device operation and market conditions, it is expected that China's needle coke output will be about 1.2 million tons in 2022.
Graphite electrode: according to incomplete statistics, the new capacity of graphite electrode in 2021 is about 170000 tons, the total capacity of graphite electrode in 2021 is 1.717 million tons, and the theoretical demand for needle coke is about 600000 tons. In terms of price, the graphite electrode is likely to rise in the second quarter of 2022. At the same time, the operation is upward, and the demand for needle coke will increase steadily.
Negative electrode materials: in 2021, the new capacity of lithium battery negative electrode materials in China was 1.441 million tons. From the end consumer market, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China were 3.023 million and 2.99 million respectively from January to November 2021, an increase of 1.7 times year-on-year. It is expected that the sales of new energy vehicles in China will be about 3.4 million in 2021. The sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles is close to the level of 20% and will be further improved in the future. It is expected to exceed 25% in 2-3 years. According to the current volume, the sales volume of new energy vehicles is expected to be close to 6-7 million in 2025. As the final raw material of power battery, the market demand for cathode materials will continue to improve, and the market demand for needle coke and raw coke can be expected.
2. Price
In 2021, the market price of China's needle coke continued to rise. At the beginning of 2022, the Winter Olympic Games, the Spring Festival and the two sessions came one after another. From the analysis of the current market situation, it is expected that after the Winter Olympic Games, the market price of China's needle coke may rise slightly, with a range of 500-1000 yuan / ton. The specific influencing factors are as follows:
1. The supply side shrinks slightly; With the approaching of the Winter Olympic Games, local environmental protection supervision groups and environmental protection policies emerge one after another. According to the feedback of enterprises, during the Winter Olympic Games, the production of some oil series needle coke enterprises in Shandong will be affected to varying degrees. At the same time, the start-up of coal series needle coke will remain low. Only Shandong Yiwei will be put into operation at the end of 2021, and the rest are expected to be put into operation around the second quarter. Therefore, on the whole, It is expected that the overall supply side of needle coke market will shrink slightly before March.
2. Downstream demand first decreases and then increases; Affected by environmental protection and power rationing, the demand for terminal steel mills and downstream graphite electrodes is expected to weaken, and the demand for needle coke and cooked coke is general, but the market demand for battery energy storage remains unchanged, and the orders for negative electrode materials are sufficient. In order to cope with the environmental impact of the Winter Olympic Games, most negative electrode material enterprises have the mentality of preparing goods in advance, the orders for raw coke increase, and the market shipment is good. With the end of relevant environmental protection events, The market of downstream graphite electrode and negative electrode materials has started to improve, and the demand for needle coke is expected to increase.
3. Due to the impact of international epidemic and enterprise maintenance, the market supply is tight, which is conducive to the shipment in the domestic market. In terms of price, the price of imported needle coke is expected to rise in the first quarter.