The motor transport is gradually recovered, and the price of local coking is rising
Market overview
This week, the price of local petroleum coke market stopped falling and rose. In the early stage, due to the static management of some regions in Shandong, the logistics transportation was not smooth, and the automobile transportation was seriously blocked, which caused the overall stock of petroleum coke of local refiners to be overstocked, and had a significant impact on the price of local petroleum coke. Since the weekend, the static management areas in some regions of Shandong have been basically unsealed, and the logistics and transportation have been gradually restored. The inventory of downstream enterprises has been at a low level for a long time, and the enthusiasm for receiving goods is high. The stock of petroleum coke in refineries has decreased, prompting the price of petroleum coke to recover. However, due to the impact of a large number of imported petroleum coke arriving in Hong Kong and the deterioration of the overall index of locally refined petroleum coke, the price of petroleum coke with sulfur above 3.0% only rose slightly, which was less than expected. The enthusiasm of downstream petroleum coke with good trace elements within 3.0% of sulfur was still high, and the price rose significantly. The price adjustment range was 50-330 yuan/ton.
Supply side
As of November 10, there have been 7 regular maintenance of local coking units. This week, a new shutdown coking unit was added, and the daily output of some refineries fluctuated. As of this Thursday, the daily output of petroleum coke of the local refinery is 35710 tons, and the operating rate of the local coking is 70.64%, an increase of 1.35% over last week.
Demand side
This week, the closure and control policy was lifted in some regions, and the logistics transportation recovered somewhat compared with the early stage. As the stock of raw petroleum coke in the downstream enterprises has been at a low level for a long time, the willingness to stock up and replenish the stock is strong, and the enthusiasm for receiving goods is high.
Inventory
In the early stage, some regions in Shandong were affected by logistics and transportation, and the manufacturers' inventory was seriously overstocked, which was at a medium high level; Now, due to the unsealing of some regions in Shandong, the automobile transportation has recovered, and the downstream enterprises have a high enthusiasm for receiving goods, the shipment of local refineries has improved, and the overall inventory has decreased to a medium low level.
Price
As of this Thursday, low sulfur coke (about S1.0%) had sold about 5130-5200 yuan/ton, while medium sulfur coke (about S3.0% high vanadium) had sold about 3050-3600 yuan/ton; High sulfur and high vanadium coke (sulfur content is about 4.5%) was sold at 2450-2600 yuan/ton.
Future market forecast
Affected by the crude oil index, the local refining petroleum coke index changes frequently. At present, the market for high vanadium petroleum coke is in large circulation, while the supply of petroleum coke with better trace elements (vanadium<500) is still tight. With the slight recovery of logistics and transportation in some regions, the downstream stock replenishment is active. Therefore, Baichuan Yingfu expects that the price of local refining petroleum coke will rise steadily next week, and some petroleum coke with better trace elements will still have an increase expectation, with a range of about 100 yuan/ton