Downstream replenishment after the holiday, with most petroleum coke prices rising
Market Overview
This week (2024.2.8-2024.2.22), the shipment of petroleum coke in the market was still acceptable, with most coke prices rising; After the Spring Festival holiday, some downstream enterprises replenish their inventory after the holiday, and have a high enthusiasm for entering the market for procurement. In addition, the long-term low inventory of petroleum coke in refineries has boosted the rise of coke prices. However, as the price of petroleum coke continues to rise, some downstream aluminum and carbon enterprises continue to suffer losses. The wait-and-see sentiment gradually intensifies, and on-demand procurement leads to a gradual stabilization of petroleum coke prices. As of February 22, 2024, the average price of petroleum coke in the market was 1865 yuan/ton, an increase of 27 yuan/ton or 1.47% compared to last week.
This week, the overall shipment of petroleum coke from Sinopec's refineries was acceptable, with coke prices generally increasing by 20-130 yuan/ton; PetroChina's refineries mainly maintain stable trading prices, with some slightly pushing up by 50 yuan/ton; The prices of petroleum coke in CNOOC's refineries have fluctuated, with a concentrated range of 20-100 yuan/ton; The overall shipment of refined petroleum coke in the local refining market is still acceptable, with most refinery coke prices pushing up by 20-340 yuan/ton.
From a specific analysis perspective:
In terms of main refineries
The overall shipment of petroleum coke from Sinopec's refineries is still acceptable, with coke prices generally increasing by 20-130 yuan/ton; The shipment of medium sulfur petroleum coke in the Yangtze River region is good. The coking unit of Anqing Petrochemical has been temporarily shut down for maintenance since February 14th, causing a shortage of supply and an increase in coke prices. Other refineries have also raised prices to varying degrees; The shipment of high sulfur petroleum coke in the East and South China regions is good, and the downstream receiving enthusiasm is high; The recent snowfall in the Shandong region of North China has hindered truck shipments, but the coking units of Qilu Petrochemical North Plant and Qingdao Petrochemical are still in a state of shutdown for maintenance, with limited market supply and continued increase in coke prices; The shipment of high sulfur petroleum coke in the northwest region is still acceptable, with coke prices rising. This week, the trading volume of petroleum coke market in the northwest region under PetroChina was still good. After the holiday, the overall coke prices of various refineries remained stable. The demand for petrochemical products in Yumen and Lanzhou remained stable, and there was no pressure on refinery shipments. This week, coke prices have slightly increased by 50 yuan/ton; Recently, the traffic in Xinjiang has been blocked due to the cold weather. Most downstream silicon metal and silicon carbide enterprises plan to resume production after the Yuanxiao (Filled round balls made of glutinous rice-flour for Lantern Festival). At present, some enterprises have begun to reserve raw materials, and the overall inventory of refineries in Xinjiang remains low. This week, the overall fluctuation of the low sulfur petroleum coke market was relatively small. After the holiday, the overall trading performance of the downstream graphite electrode and negative electrode material market was average, and the speed of enterprise operation was slow, and the raw materials were still purchased in demand. This week, many refineries in the Northeast and North China regions under China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) were selling at stable prices, while Jilin Petrochemical's petroleum coke continued to be sold at a guaranteed price. The first bidding price of Liaohe Petrochemical's petroleum coke slightly increased compared to the previous week, while the second bidding price remained stable compared to the previous week. After the holiday, the overall performance of new orders for shipments from CNOOC's refineries remained stable. Recently, the supply of asphalt petroleum coke from Binzhou CNOOC has been reduced in the short term. This week, coke prices have risen by 100 yuan/ton, while Taizhou Petrochemical has slightly reduced by 50 yuan/ton. Huizhou Petrochemical maintains stable trading, and Zhoushan Petrochemical plans to conduct short-term maintenance of its coking plant in March.
On the supply side
As of February 22nd, there are currently 10 routine inspections of coking plants in China. From the holiday until today, a total of 3 new coking plants have been shut down for maintenance. Another coking plant has started production but has not yet produced coke, while another coking plant has started production and produced coke; Some refineries also experience fluctuations in daily production. As of Thursday this week, the daily production of petroleum coke in China was 86858 tons, with a coking operating rate of 68.49%, a decrease of 0.79% from last week.
In terms of demand
After the holiday, downstream aluminum carbon enterprises are actively stocking up and replenishing inventory, and market inquiries are active, supporting the upward trend of petroleum coke market prices; The trading performance of the negative electrode material market is relatively flat, with fewer orders from enterprises and lower willingness to purchase raw materials; The demand for high sulfur projectile coke in the silicon carbide industry and the southern fuel market still exists; The overall production of graphite electrode enterprises is on the rise, but due to the unreleased downstream demand, graphite electrode enterprises still focus on sales and production, and the market is temporarily stable.
In terms of inventory
Downstream enterprises have a demand for replenishment after the holiday, market inquiries are active, refinery petroleum coke shipments are still acceptable, and overall inventory is at a low level; Imported petroleum coke ships are still arriving at the port one after another. In addition, due to the impact of heavy snow weather, the delivery speed of northern ports is slow, and the storage of petroleum coke in the port has increased significantly this week.
Future Market Forecast
Supply side: According to Baichuan Yingfu, there will be shutdowns of coking units in the refinery next week, and domestic petroleum coke supply is expected to have little fluctuation; Due to the impact of snowfall, the speed of port shipments for imported coke is lower than expected. It is expected that next week, with the end of snowfall and the resumption of road transportation, the speed of port petroleum coke shipments will accelerate, and inventory is expected to slightly decrease.
Demand side: Downstream aluminum carbon enterprises have basically completed replenishment, coupled with some enterprises still operating at a loss, overall demand for petroleum coke procurement; The demand for petroleum coke in the negative electrode material market is limited due to the low volume of inquiries on the market, a decline in enterprise shipments, weakened production enthusiasm, and limited demand for petroleum coke; The demand for high sulfur projectile coke in the silicon carbide industry and the southern fuel market still exists; There are fewer new orders in the graphite electrode field, and the trading atmosphere is weak, so petroleum coke is purchased on demand.
Overall, as the price of petroleum coke continues to rise, the enthusiasm of downstream enterprises to receive goods has decreased, and demand is the main focus. Baichuan Yingfu expects that the coke prices of its main refineries are expected to stabilize next week, and the prices of petroleum coke in some areas will decrease by 20-100 yuan/ton. The main price range for petroleum coke is 2400-3290 yuan/ton for low sulfur coke (sulfur around 0.5%), 1600-1800 yuan/ton for medium sulfur coke (sulfur below 3.0%), and 1050-1300 yuan/ton for high sulfur coke (general cargo around 5.0%). The price of bullet coke is expected to transition smoothly.