How will the preparation for the Winter Olympic Games affect the supply and demand of petroleum coke in Shandong
Since October, much attention has been paid to the production restriction of petroleum coke upstream and downstream industries in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and surrounding areas. After some regions of Henan and Hebei communicated the production restriction policy of enterprises during the heating season from 2021 to 2022 and the Winter Olympic Games in the form of documents or oral notices to enterprises, the production restriction news of the Winter Olympic Games was also heard from Shandong on November 18, 2021. The general content of the news is: during the period from January 27 to March 15, 2022, nonggao District, Dongying City, Shandong Province, enterprises with EIA class C and below stopped work, and enterprises with EIA class C and above reduced production by 50%. It is reported that carbon enterprises in the region have received oral notice of stopping and limiting production, but the refinery said it has not received a clear notice.
On November 15 every year, all parts of the North officially enter the central heating season, but generally, according to the situation of local heat companies, they will start heating one week in advance. As of late November, Shandong has no other policies in the heating season except the annual necessary notice of the comprehensive treatment plan for air pollution in autumn and winter 2021-2022. In addition, the production restriction policy of Dongying nonggao district is only for the enterprises in the region before and after the Winter Olympic Games. Therefore, it is expected that the production restriction in winter in Shandong is still similar to the implementation of the emergency plan for heavily polluted weather in previous years, but there may be clear production restriction policies in all parts of Shandong from January 27 to March 15 of the next year. As a major province of domestic petroleum coke production, trade and consumption, the production rate of upstream and downstream before and after the Winter Olympic Games will be limited to varying degrees. Finally, we have to wait for the release of policies to understand which link of upstream and downstream petroleum coke will be more affected.
Shandong is a gathering place of domestic private refineries, including 31 local refining enterprises with delayed coking units, 5 enterprises with delayed coking units, Sinopec and 1 CNOOC. The capacity of the existing delayed coking units in Shandong accounts for about 36% of the total production in China. In addition, there are a large number of petroleum coke downstream enterprises in Shandong, mainly including calcined coke and prebaked anode enterprises, accounting for about 44% of the total domestic production capacity. Therefore, the policy issues around Shandong in the coming months will be the main influencing factor of the trend of the domestic petroleum coke market.
Since October, the price of Shandong Dilian petroleum coke has fallen one after another, especially in November. Taking the price of Shandong Dilian 3B petroleum coke as an example, the price decline in November has been as high as 532 yuan / ton, a decline of more than 18%. As of November 19, the decline of Shandong local refined petroleum coke price began to slow down, but at present, the whole domestic petroleum coke market is full of bad, and the market has no good support. In addition, the production restriction policy during the Winter Olympic Games in Shandong has not been clarified, and the downstream enterprises are cautious in purchasing raw materials and maintain the mode of purchasing on demand.
On the whole
Before the policy is clear, the market uncertainty still dominates. Although the current local refined petroleum coke price shows signs of stabilizing, it does not rule out the possibility of continued decline in the later stage. At present, the domestic petroleum coke market is still in a high-risk stage.